There is a way to overcome the global fertility crisis

By alleviating the burdens of childcare, providing economic support to young people, and empowering women, the decline in fertility rates might be reversed, stated Nobel laureate economist James Heckman in his lecture during the honorary doctorate ceremony at Corvinus University of Budapest. The event was accompanied by an international workshop, organized in collaboration with the university, which gathered the world’s leading experts to discuss the issue. 

James Heckman, renowned for for his pioneering research on social mobility, skill development, and investments in early childhood development, received the Doctor et Professor Honoris Causa title from Corvinus University Rector Bruno van Pottelsberghe in mid-December. The University of Chicago economist’s partnership between Corvinus and his Center for the Economics of Human Development, strengthened in 2023, launched a multi-year research project aimed at uncovering the economic and social causes of the global fertility crisis and identifying solutions. 

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A New Approach is Needed 

In his lecture, Heckman analyzed the demographic changes reshaping societies worldwide: declining fertility rates in developed nations, aging populations, and youth unemployment in high-fertility regions. According to Heckman, traditional economic models are insufficient to address these demographic complexities. Modern policies must account for the interplay of social, economic, and cultural factors. 

Heckman identified five key drivers of fertility decline, including the costs of higher education and career aspirations delaying or discouraging parenthood, shifting social norms reflecting parenthood a personal choice rather than a societal expectation, economic challenges such as housing costs and job insecurity, cultural and media influences, and environmental concerns like climate change. 

Despite the challenges, Heckman highlighted three areas of effective policy interventions: 

• Investing in Education and Parental Support: Scandinavian welfare states show that public funding for childcare, education, and parental support increases fertility rates. 
• Providing Economic Assistance to Young People: Targeted housing policies and better employment opportunities help young adults start families. 
• Empowering Women: Equal pay, training opportunities, and a fairer distribution of domestic responsibilities enable women to balance careers and family life effectively. 

Workshop on Fertility Challenges: from Pronatalist Policies to Social Norms 

The two-day workshop following the honorary ceremony brought together an interdisciplinary group of leading scholars, including demographers and economists to discuss the causes of declining fertility rates and the effectiveness of supportive policies. Co-organized by the Corvinus Institute for Advanced Studies and the University of Chicago’s Center for the Economics of Human Development, this invitation-only event was the first in-person meeting of the long-term research collaboration. 

Discussions explored global, regional, and national fertility trends, the success of pronatalist policies, economic and cultural impacts, the influence of media and societal norms on fertility, and globally changing patterns of sexual activity. The detailed program of the workshop can be found here (and a video of the full program will be available soon for all interested parties).  

The workshop garnered significant international attention and marked the beginning of a multi-disciplinary effort to address the complex challenges of the fertility crisis through research, scientific dialogue, and impactful policy recommendations.