PM Orbán: “There is life outside of the EU” – Huxit to happen soon?
Who and how would benefit from a Huxit that seems more and more probable?
Ever since Great Britain decided to coin the idea of leaving the European Union, other countries also considered the possibility – if only hypothetically. However, it seems like Hungary takes it much more seriously.
It was only two weeks ago that DNH reported on Financial Minister Mihály Varga, who said that Hungary might reconsider its position in the EU by the end of this decade.
Lately, several other members of the Hungarian government have made statements in a rather Eurosceptic way. Pro-governmental political scientist Tamás Fricz directly wrote last weekend in Magyar Nemzet that
“…the time has come, now in July 2021, to seriously consider the possibility of our withdrawal from a union of states with a thousand bleeding wounds, showing imperial symptoms, and treating the Eastern and Central European countries incredibly arrogantly.”
Where does this scepticism come from when Hungary takes out more from the common budget than what it contributes? Is it a fresh idea?
The answer is no. Five years before the country’s accession to the EU, during his first cycle as Hungary’s Prime Minister in 1999, Viktor Orbán already had a very similar opinion.
Although, at that time, he approached the question by saying that
“It would not be a tragedy if Hungary did not join in 2003….as we can see, there is life outside of the EU”.
As telex.hu reminds, the interests of Hungary did not completely coincide with that of the EU. Still, the general idea was that in the long run, Hungary should belong to the community. In the next couple of years after the accession, this was the Hungarian politics’ general standpoint. (Nevertheless, it might be interesting to mention that the referendum “only” had a 45% participation, with 83% voting to join.)
Until Fidesz won the elections in 2010, it was considered a “soft Eurosceptic” political party that did not want its country to leave the EU, just did not agree with its international politics on some occasions, and did not consider its national interests compatible with the EU.
Jobbik, on the other hand, openly wanted Hungary to exit in 2012. Two years later, Fidesz slowly started to join this opinion and used a slogan at the parliamentary elections that asked for respect for the Hungarians from Brussels. While the next years Jobbik stepped back and did not even want to have a referendum on the membership anymore, Fidesz strengthened its anti-EU dogma. The migration crisis of 2015, when the EU introduced a quota for every country to take in refugees, helped considerably to solidify some sort of rage, especially against Brussels. Fidesz campaigned with the slogan saying the de facto capital of the EU “wanted a city-sized group of migrants to settle down in Hungary.” This campaign brought Fidesz its most enormous success in the next elections in 2018.
Ever since the crisis, Fidesz’ is alienated from EU member states in general and even from members of the European People’s Party. Truth be told, the huge posters of George Soros and Jean-Claude Juncker (the then president of the European Commission) depicted as the main villains did not help.
The entertaining yet scandalous and hypocritical incident of József Szájer at the end of last year and the harsh words of European Parliament member Tamás Deutsch drawing a resemblance between EPP leader Manfred Weber’s words and the ideals of the Gestapo paved the way for Hungary to leave the EPP. (Tamás Deutsch is the same person who called Sebastian Vettel a Nazi for showing his solidarity with the LGBTQ community.)
Though Hungary stands for the ideals of the EU, it refuses the existence of a European superstate. Instead, it wants to preserve European traditions, European nations, and diversity as they continue their cooperation.
Despite the government’s newly strengthened opinion on the membership, Hungarian people think otherwise. A representative survey made by Medián in July shows that
two-thirds of the population would for sure take part in a referendum concerning the country’s membership, and 79% of them would vote to stay.
Interestingly, the same number, 79% of pro-governmental voters, are on the same page, as well.
Who would benefit from a Huxit then? It seems like Hungary is trying to solidify its relations with the East, getting ready for leaving the EU. However, it also seems like staying an EU member state would benefit both Hungary and its Eastern allies.
Being an EU and NATO member country “increases the value of small Hungary of nine and a half million inhabitants, scarce in natural resources, and without a sea”.
An anonymous political analyst told telex.hu that
“both the EU and the NATO are more than favourable for us; they are the indispensable base of the Hungarian budget and the national protection and security politics.”
Source: telex.hu, magyarnemzet.hu, Medián