PM Orbán can be in real trouble: Péter Magyar leads all polls; Minister Lázár can run instead of Orbán
Poll results showing an increasing Tisza lead ahead of PM Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz have been arriving one after the other recently. IDEA Institute, for example, found that Magyar’s Tisza has a 7% advantage over Fidesz, and it seems that despite all of Orbán’s efforts, he is unable to overcome Tisza or even harm its rising popularity. That means that losing power after the 2026 general elections is becoming a reality, which was an unthinkable scenario even one year ago.
IDEA Institute: Péter Magyar has a significant lead ahead of Fidesz
According to index.hu, the Hungarian IDEA Institute’s recent poll found that only four parties could cross the minimum threshold if parliamentary elections were held this May: Orbán’s Fidesz, Magyar’s Tisza, right-radical Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland), and the Democratic Coalition, a party previously led by former PM Ferenc Gyurcsány, who withdrew from public life this month. His ex-wife, Klára Dobrev, is expected to take over the party’s leadership.
According to the IDEA Institute, Tisza’s advantage ahead of Fidesz is solid: out of the entire adult population, 34% would cast their ballot on Péter Magyar’s new formation, while only 25% would vote for PM Orbán.
Concerning those who promise to participate in an election, Tisza’s advantage is 7%. 44% of the voters would support Péter Magyar, and only 37% would vote for PM Orbán.
4 parties would emerge in the new parliament
The 5% parliamentary threshold would be passed only by two political parties: Our Homeland and Democratic Coalition (5% and 6%). Meanwhile, Hungary’s joke party, the Two-Tailed Dog Party, would receive 4%, which is not enough to win seats in the next National Assembly. However, the frivolous party won some key positions in Hungary; for example, they are in multiple local councils, including the Budapest Municipal Council and the party’s chairman, Gergely Kovács, is the mayor of the capital’s 12th district.
Concerning the party preferences of voters above 65, Medián has conducted a poll: 41% of them would vote for Fidesz and 25% for Magyar’s Tisza. The trend is, however, that Fidesz is losing ground even in this age group.
Lázár instead of Orbán as PM?
Anna Gielewska in VSquare’s Goulash Newsletter wrote about an interesting scenario for the 2026 general elections. She wrote that all attempts by Orbán to break Tisza’s rising popularity have failed so far. There were multiple attempts, from the EU funds scandal to the so-called Ukrainian espionage scandal. Therefore, sources with good ties to the government told Szabolcs Panyi, a Hungarian investigative journalist, that a theoretical backup plan is being formed in Fidesz.
The plan involves János Lázár, Hungary’s construction and development minister, who would lead Fidesz into a battle instead of Viktor Orbán. Such an option would have been inconceivable even one year ago.
A distant but real option
Lázár is a Fidesz heavyweight. Between 2014 and 2018, he served as the head of the Prime Minister’s Office, and it was said he would like to replace Orbán in the long run. He is touring the country trying to persuade Fidesz supporters and opposition voters at open-air forums. According to VSquare, he can create his campaign infrastructure for a potential election campaign. Szabolcs Panyi’s sources said his candidacy is “being considered as a distant but very real option.”
Such a scenario was first raised by Hungarian political analyst Gábor Török earlier this month. He said there might come a time when polls are so bad that Orbán must think about not leading Fidesz into the elections but entrust that mission to one of his leading politicians. If they succeed, he can still govern from the background, but if they lose, he can easily blame his substitute.
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