Turning point: More Hungarians trust in Péter Magyar than Viktor Orbán – government change on the horizon?

Fidesz leader Viktor Orbán has long relied on his stable base, but new data suggests his overall approval is steadily declining. Over the past year, the number of Hungarians who consider him fully fit for the role of prime minister has dropped by 7 percentage points, while the share of those who have no trust in him at all has risen by 11 points.

According to a June 2025 poll conducted by Medián, Péter Magyar’s political influence has grown significantly over the past year. The head of the Tisza Party is now viewed by more people as suitable to lead Hungary than Orbán, who has served as prime minister for over a decade. The survey found that 53% of respondents believe Péter Magyar is “completely” or “somewhat” fit for the position, while only 44% say the same about Orbán.

HVG notes that this shift marks a dramatic turnaround, considering that trust in Magyar was significantly lower just one year ago. Since then, disapproval of him has decreased, while his leadership qualifications are recognised by a growing number of people. While Fidesz voters remain deeply loyal to Orbán and internal party support has not waned, this stability contrasts starkly with the Tisza Party’s dynamic growth and increasing trust in its leader.

Fidesz supporters have remained consistently loyal over the years, but support for the Tisza Party has seen a notable surge. Today, 97% of Tisza Party voters consider Péter Magyar qualified to be prime minister—a 7-point rise compared to last year. Particularly striking is the 11-point increase in those who view him as “fully qualified,” signalling not only rising trust but also the party’s expanding base, which has doubled in the same timeframe.

What about undecided voters and DK supporters?

Voters without clear party affiliations are also starting to shift. Although the proportion of people who consider both Orbán and Magyar “fully qualified” has decreased among the undecided, there has been an uptick in those who see them as “somewhat” qualified. For Orbán, partial trust among undecided voters rose from 39% to 42%. For Péter Magyar, that figure climbed from 34% to 41%—a promising sign as he attempts to win over voters outside party lines.

The Democratic Coalition (DK) has recently undergone a major leadership change: longtime party leader Ferenc Gyurcsány announced his retirement and handed over the reins to his wife, Klára Dobrev. The news has reached a wide audience, with 83% of survey respondents aware of the change, yet the impact has been minimal. Just 18% believe her appointment will improve DK’s electoral prospects, 14% think it will hurt them, and a majority of 58% expect little change. Medián data supports this, as DK’s support continues to stagnate between 2–3%, consistent with recent months.

Public opinion of Klára Dobrev has slightly improved, with a 5-point rise in the number of people who consider her “somewhat” fit for the prime minister role. However, there’s been no growth in the share of those who see her as “fully qualified.” Meanwhile, outright rejection of her as a potential leader has decreased by 8 points.

Medián’s latest poll suggests that Hungary’s political landscape is undergoing a transformation. A new contender, Péter Magyar, is challenging the once unassailable Viktor Orbán. While support for Fidesz remains strong, trust in the Tisza Party’s leader is rising rapidly, particularly among undecided and first-time voters. In contrast, the DK and other opposition parties seem unable to break free from their stagnation. If this trend continues, Hungary could see a new prime minister in 2026—or at the very least, a far closer electoral contest than in any recent year.

Government-close Nezőpont: Fidesz continues to lead polls

Should the general elections be held this Sunday, ruling Fidesz would win and a three-party parliament would be formed with Tisza and Mi Hazánk, while the Two-tailed Dog Party and the Democratic Coalition would fail to clear the parliamentary threshold, the Nézőpont Institute said on Friday.

According to Nezőpont’s poll conducted on 16-17 June over the phone on a sample of 1,000 respondents, Fidesz’s lead had remained unchanged, and support for the Tisza Party had grown not to the detriment of Fidesz but to Momentum, which announced that it would not run and the 2026 election. Fidesz had also garnered votes from DK, “where an emblematic leader has been replaced,” Nézőpont said.

Some 10 months before parliamentary elections scheduled for April next year, Fidesz was leading with 44 percent of the vote, Nézőpont said. That figure was within the margin of error from March’s figure and from last year’s European Parliamentary election results, Nézőpont said.

Support for Tisza was at 39 percent, up by 4 percentage points from March and 8.5 percentage points up from the EP election results. Mi Hazánk received 7 percent, down 2 percentage points from March and unchanged from last year’s EP election results. DK stood at 3 percent, they said. According to Nézőpont’s estimate, Fidesz would garner 108 seats in parliament, Tisza 82, and Mi Hazánk would receive 8 seats.

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