New poll: PM Orbán can lose his seat after 15 years of enormous victories – UPDATED: cabinet reaction
PM Viktor Orbán has been the prime minister of Hungary for 15 years. He won supermajorities in four general elections after 2010, and Fidesz, his political party, has always been first in polls since 2006. Now, former Justice Minister Judit Varga’s ex-husband, Péter Magyar, and his Tisza Party are leading the polls, and it seems he can convince the vast majority of the anti-Orbán voters, which can be enough to win the 2026 general elections. The latest poll, for example, showed that the 2026 parliament will contain only three groups instead of the current Fidesz-KDNP supermajority and the fragmented opposition.
PM Orbán may lose the upcoming general elections
According to the latest opinion poll published by Medián, one of the most trustworthy Hungarian pollsters, the new parliament will contain only three political communities: Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP, Magyar’s Tisza and the right-radical Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland). Even former PM Gyurcsány has little chance to win a parliamentary mandate with his Democratic Coalition by crossing the 5% threshold.
Mr Magyar broke into Hungarian politics following the clemency scandal of former President Katalin Novák. First, he seemed to be the critic of Minister Antal Rogán only, and it appeared that he would not exclude cooperation with Orbán. Later, he turned against the Orbán system and became its main challenger despite helping it and serving as the CEO of the state-owned Student Loan Centre (Diákhitel Központ) before.
HVG hid the detailed results of the latest Medián poll behind a paywall, but 24.hu discussed its main findings in an article. Among those who have a party preference and say they would certainly vote in the next elections, Tisza leads with 46%, while Fidesz stands only at 37%. These results came after PM Orbán’s major announcements concerning tax cuts for families raising kids, VAT reimbursement for pensioners and cheap loans for the Hungarian SME sector. This may mean that promises will not win the elections for Orbán’s Fidesz. We wrote HERE that the Hungarian economy is struggling and covered HERE that too many Hungarians leave the country to earn more in Western European countries.
Tisza supporters are very enthusiastic
Interestingly, Tisza voters seem more enthusiastic about participating in the upcoming elections: 90% said they would go, while that rate is only 80% concerning Fidesz backers. The new parliament would consist of the right-radical Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) Party with 6% while the Two-Tailed Dog Party is below the 5% threshold with only 1%.
Based on the Medián findings, 56% of Hungarians would vote for an administration change, and only 35% would like PM Orbán to continue governing. Furthermore, Medián found that Péter Magyar’s VAT cut is more popular than Orbán’s VAT redemption for pensioners.
Hungarians are pro-EU
Moreover, Medián shared another poll showing that 2/3rds of Hungarians believe things are going in the wrong direction. 86% of Hungarians support Hungary’s EU membership despite the Hungarian government’s decade-long smear campaign against Brussels. Even 75% of the Fidesz supporters are pro-EU.
Concerning the war in Ukraine, Medián found that half of Hungarians believe Putin’s war is an unjustified aggression. Meanwhile, 37% believe that the reason for Russia’s attack on Ukraine is to protect its interests and security. Medián underscored that the rate of Russian supporters was lower in 2022 (28%). 2/3rds of the Fidesz supporters are in the latter group, while 86% of the Tisza backers are in the former. 86% of the Fidesz voters are against Ukraine’s EU accession.
Tisza supporters see a threat in Donald Trump, while Fidesz voters believe his actions are in Hungary’s favour.
Minister Gulyás’s reaction
Concerning the Medián survey on the government’s EU policy and Hungary’s EU membership, Gulyás said the government “has a lot of criticism” of EU operations, but “there are significantly more arguments for Hungary’s membership than against”. “It is not the Hungarian prime minister but the EU’s own policies that make the community weak…” he said.
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