Shocking forecast: Hungary’s population to plummet by 2.2 million by 2100

A recent United Nations population projection paints a grim picture of Hungary’s demographic future. According to the forecast, Hungary’s population could shrink by 2.2 million people by 2100, reducing the current 9.6 million inhabitants to just 7.4 million.

This dramatic decline is part of an extensive trend affecting much of Europe, especially Eastern Europe. According to Pénzcentrum, the region has been experiencing population decline since the 1990s, and this trend is expected to accelerate throughout the 21st century.

While Hungary’s projected population loss is significant, it fares relatively well compared to some of its neighbours:

• Serbia is expected to lose 45% of its population;
• Romania could see a decrease of 8.1 million people, equating to a 43% reduction;
• Slovenia, Slovakia, and Croatia are also projected to experience higher percentage losses than Hungary.

In contrast, some Western European countries are expected to see population growth. The United Kingdom, for instance, is projected to gain 4.8 million people, while France could see an increase of 1.8 million, Visual Capitalist reports. This growth is largely attributed to immigration.

European demographic challenges

The population decline across Europe is primarily due to birth rates falling below the replacement level. This trend, combined with an ageing population, poses significant challenges for the continent. First of all, fewer people means reduced consumer demand, which is crucial for economic growth. Second, a shrinking workforce will lead to decreased tax revenue, potentially jeopardising Europe’s renowned social security systems.

Migration as a counterbalance

Immigration has played an important role in maintaining Europe’s population growth in recent decades. However, the “boost effect” from international migration is expected to diminish sooner than anticipated. The European Union’s statistical office, Eurostat, predicts that Europe’s population will peak in 2026 before beginning a gradual decline.

Implications for Hungary

The projected population loss could have grave consequences for the Hungarian economy and society. With fewer working-age individuals, the country may face labour shortages in key sectors, increased pressure on pension and healthcare systems, and challenges in maintaining economic growth and competitiveness.

These changes are not unique to Europe

It’s worth noting that these demographic shifts are not unique to Hungary or Europe. Many developed countries worldwide are grappling with similar challenges. However, the severity of the projected decline in Eastern Europe, including Hungary, is particularly concerning.

With Hungary facing this demographic challenge, policymakers will need to consider a range of strategies to mitigate the impact. For example, these may include policies to encourage higher birth rates, attract skilled immigrants, and adapt economic and social systems to a smaller, older population.

While these projections are based on current trends and could be influenced by future policy changes or unforeseen events, they underscore the urgent need for Hungary to address its demographic challenges to ensure a sustainable future for the nation.

Read also:

• The Hungarian population is shrinking drastically
• Concerning: Hungary’s population may fall below 6 million in decades; childlessness rises like a pandemic

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