Is PM Orbán preparing for early elections in 2025?
According to Hungary’s 2025 budget law, the Orbán government plans to spend HUF 8.4 billion (EUR 20.5 million) on the upcoming general elections in 2025. Is that just a technicality, an error, or will there be early elections in Hungary next year?
No early elections since 1990 in Hungary
Hungarians could first elect freely in April and May 1990, after the collapse of the Communist state. Since then, no early elections have been organised in Hungary, even though sometimes it could have been, for the best. For example, in 2006, the Ferenc Gyurcsány cabinet faced protests after it became apparent that the prime minister and his government lied about the budget numbers to the European Union and the people. However, the Socialist government did not give up and served its full term to suffer a historic defeat from Fidesz in 2010 and “give” Orbán his first supermajority in the parliament.
PM Orbán believes that governments in Hungary should serve their terms despite the circumstances. According to him, cabinets serving their full term are a condition of stability and predictability. That is unique in Central and Eastern Europe, where early elections are common.
Péter Magyar emerged as Orbán’s main challenger
The Orbán system faces its biggest challenge in Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party in the upcoming general elections. Even government-close pollsters believe that Orbán has no chance for another supermajority. Neutral and leftist pollsters measure a significant Tisza Party lead.
Therefore, it makes sense to hold early elections in Hungary. Vox Populi választási kalauz, a Hungarian Facebook page focusing on elections and polls, shared that the 2025 budget of Hungary, accepted in December by Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP alliance, programs the election organisation spending, EUR 20.5 million, for 2025. That would cover the costs of printing ballots, sending out notifications for the citizens and sending voting packages to Hungarians living abroad.
Will 2025 be ‘annus mirabilis’?
A considerable disadvantage of an early election would be that the Hungarian economy underperformed even government expectations in 2024, so there is a widespread depression due to the decreasing value of real wages and the prospects of entrepreneurs. PM Orbán promised wonders in the Hungarian economy in 2025, which seems to be a preparation for the parliamentary elections. Furthermore, the government plans serious transfers to the electorates. For example, they will double the family tax benefits for families raising three or more kids.
Read also:
- Péter Magyar’s Tisza party ahead of PM Orbán in latest polls but won’t field candidates on next election – read more HERE
- Possible U.S. Ambassadors to Hungary: Meet the candidates